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Monetary Policy and the German Unemployment Problem in Macroeconomic Models : Theory and Evidence
Having the high unemployment in Germany in mind, this book discusses how macroeconomic theory has evolved over the past forty years. It shows that in recent years a convergence has taken place, with modern models embodying a Keynesian transmission mechanism, monetarist policy implication, and modeling techniques inspired by new classical economics and real business cycle theory. It also probes in which direction models may be extended from here. Empirically, the book uses different econometric techniques to investigate the relevance and implications of different macroeconomic theories for German data. A key question this book investigates is the role of demand and supply side conditions for the increase in the German unemployment rate. On a policy level, the book relates the implications of the different theories to the ongoing debate on the appropriate roles of demand and supply side policies for curing the German unemployment problem.
International Trade and Multinational Activity : Heterogeneity of Firms, Incentives for Foreign Direct Investment, and International Business Cycle Dynamics
During the last 25 year, the neoclassical Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory has been extended to the ‘new’ trade theory by including imperfect competition and fixed costs into the analysis of trade relations. Furthermore, these micro-oriented trade models are increasingly used to analyze macro-oriented questions. Chapter 2 of this study investigates the dynamic welfare effects of exposure to trade in a new trade model, which is extended by firm heterogeneity.
Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis
The business surveys of the Ifo Institute (short for Information and Forschung) are internationally renowned. Every month close to 7,000 enterprises are questioned on their short-term planning and their appraisals of the actual and future business situation. The confidence indicator frequently referred to as the Ifo Business Climate Index is derived from the responses to this Ifo Business Survey. While the Index attracts a lot of attention by practitioners (especially financial market analysts), the use and empirical exploitation of this and other components of Ifo business surveys is – amongst academics – still relatively scarce. The present volume, based on a conference entitled "The Academic Use of Ifo Survey Data", gives examples of timely research questions which can be addressed by qualitative survey data like the monthly Ifo Business Survey. It shows that this type of real-time data can be very informative when it comes to forecasting real economic activity or exploring monetary policy transmission.
High Frequency Financial Econometrics : Recent Developments
This exciting volume presents cutting-edge developments in high frequency financial econometrics, spanning a diverse range of topics: market microstructure, tick-by-tick data, bond and foreign exchange markets and large dimensional volatility modelling. The chapters on market microstructure deal with liquidity, asymmetries of information, and limit order aggressiveness in pure limit order book markets. The chapters on tick-by-tick data present statistical techniques for the analysis of the discrete nature of price movements, the intraday seasonal patterns of financial durations, and the joint probability law of prices, volume and durations. Bond markets are brought into focus through the analysis of macroeconomic announcements in the future bond market as a function of the business cycle.
Emergent Macroeconomics : An Agent-Based Approach to Business Fluctuations
This book contributes substantively to the current state-of-the-art of macroeconomics by providing a method for building models in which business cycles and economic growth emerge from the interactions of a large number of heterogeneous agents. Drawing from recent advances in agent-based computational modeling, the authors show how insights from dispersed fields like the microeconomics of capital market imperfections, industrial dynamics and the theory of stochastic processes can be fruitfully combined to improve our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. This book should be a valuable resource for all researchers interested in analyzing macroeconomic issues without recurring to a fictitious representative agent.
Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling : Computational Methods and Applications
Modern business cycle theory and growth theory uses stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models. Many mathematical tools are needed to solve these models. The book presents various methods for computing the dynamics of general equilibrium models. In part I, the representative-agent stochastic growth model is solved with the help of value function iteration, linear and linear quadratic approximation methods, parameterised expectations and projection methods. In order to apply these methods, fundamentals from numerical analysis are reviewed in detail. Part II discusses methods for solving heterogeneous-agent economies. In such economies, the distribution of the individual state variables is endogenous. This part of the book also serves as an introduction to the modern theory of distribution economics. Applications include the dynamics of the income distribution over the business cycle or the overlapping-generations model.
Convergence or Divergence in Europe? : Growth and Business Cycles in France, Germany and Italy
The book analyses the latest developments in three largest European economies in a broad perspective, using modern econometric techniques. One of the conclusions is that, while business cycles are more strongly correlated across the three countries, as evidenced by the common reaction to the 2001 slowdown, the three countries still exhibit differences in terms of long term growth.
Complex systems approach to economic dynamics
This monograph introduces new concepts of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles which are unstable structures embedded in a chaotic attractor, responsible for economic intermittency.
Business cycle dynamics : Models and tools
Business cycle theory has been one of the fastest growing fields in modern nonlinear economic dynamics. The book is centered around models of multiplier-accelerator type, emerging from Samuelson's seminal work, later developed into nonlinear formats by Hicks and Goodwin. These models left open ends, as the tools then available did not permit more systematic analysis.
Bank capital and risk-taking : The impact of capital regulation, charter value, and the business cycle
The aim of this study is to contribute to this understanding by answering the following questions: How do banks adjust capital and risk after an increase in capital requirements? How do banks adjust their regulatory capital buffer over the business cycle? And what is the impact of banks' charter value on the regulatory capital buffer?
