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الصفحة 1
الصفحة 1
Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370
This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time series estimation methods were used to produce a probability distribution of potential MH370 flight paths. It provides details of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics, satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects and radar data were constructed and calibrated. The probability distribution was used to define the search zone in the southern Indian Ocean. The book describes particle-filter based numerical calculation of the aircraft flight-path probability distribution and validates the method using data from several of the involved aircraft’s previous flights. Finally it is shown how the Reunion Island flaperon debris find affects the search probability distribution.
Level Crossing Methods in Stochastic Models
Since its inception in 1974, the level crossing approach for analyzing a large class of stochastic models has become increasingly popular among researchers. This volume traces the evolution of level crossing theory for obtaining probability distributions of state variables and demonstrates solution methods in a variety of stochastic models including: queues, inventories, dams, renewal models, counter models, pharmacokinetics, and the natural sciences. Results for both steady-state and transient distributions are given, and numerous examples help the reader apply the method to solve problems faster, more easily, and more intuitively.
Lagrangian Probability Distributions
Lagrangian expansions can be used to obtain numerous useful probability models, which have been applied to real life situations including, but not limited to: branching processes, queuing processes, stochastic processes, environmental toxicology, diffusion of information, ecology, strikes in industries, sales of new products, and production targets for optimum profits. This book presents a comprehensive, systematic treatment of the class of Lagrangian probability distributions, along with some of its families, their properties, and important applications.
Bayesian reliability
Bayesian Reliability presents modern methods and techniques for analyzing reliability data from a Bayesian perspective. The adoption and application of Bayesian methods in virtually all branches of science and engineering have significantly increased over the past few decades. This increase is largely due to advances in simulation-based computational tools for implementing Bayesian methods. The authors extensively use such tools throughout this book, focusing on assessing the reliability of components and systems with particular attention to hierarchical models and models incorporating explanatory variables. Such models include failure time regression models, accelerated testing models, and degradation models. The authors pay special attention to Bayesian goodness-of-fit testing, model validation, reliability test design, and assurance test planning. Throughout the book, the authors use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for implementing Bayesian analyses--algorithms that make the Bayesian approach to reliability computationally feasible and conceptually straightforward.
Advances in Probabilistic Graphical Models
This carefully edited book brings together in one volume some of the most important topics of current research in probabilistic graphical modelling, learning from data and probabilistic inference. This includes topics such as the characterisation of conditional independence, the sensitivity of the underlying probability distribution of a Bayesian network to variation in its parameters, the learning of graphical models with latent variables and extensions to the influence diagram formalism. In addition, attention is given to important application fields of probabilistic graphical models, such as the control of vehicles, bioinformatics and medicine.
