الصفحة 3
الصفحة 3
Design of Observational Studies
This book introduction to statistical inference in observational studies and a detailed discussion of the principles that guide the design of observational studies. An observational study is an empiric investigation of effects caused by treatments when randomized experimentation is unethical or infeasible. Observational studies are common in most fields that study the effects of treatments on people, including medicine, economics, epidemiology, education, psychology, political science and sociology. The quality and strength of evidence provided by an observational study is determined largely by its design. Design of Observational Studies is organized into five parts. Chapters 2, 3, and 5 of Part I cover concisely many of the ideas discussed in Rosenbaum’s Observational Studies. Part II discusses the practical aspects of using propensity scores and other tools to create a matched comparison that balances many covariates, and includes an updated chapter on matching in R. In Part III, the concept of design sensitivity is used to appraise the relative ability of competing designs to distinguish treatment effects from biases due to unmeasured covariates. Part IV discusses evidence factors and the computerized construction of more than one comparison group. Part V discusses planning the analysis of an observational study, with particular reference to Sir Ronald Fisher’s striking advice for observational studies: "make your theories elaborate."
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty : From Theory to Practice
Focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them.
Data Quality : Concepts, Methodologies and Techniques
Batini and Scannapieco present a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the wide set of issues related to data quality. They start with a detailed description of different data quality dimensions, like accuracy, completeness, and consistency, and their importance in different types of data, like federated data, web data, or time-dependent data, and in different data categories classified according to frequency of change, like stable, long-term, and frequently changing data. The book's extensive description of techniques and methodologies from core data quality research as well as from related fields like data mining, probability theory, statistical data analysis, and machine learning gives an excellent overview of the current state of the art.
Control Theory in Physics and other Fields of Science : Concepts, Tools, and Applications
This book covers systematically and in a simple language the mathematical and physical foundations of controlling deterministic and stochastic evolutionary processes in systems with a high degree of complexity. Strong emphasis is placed on concepts, methods and techniques for modelling, assessment and the solution or estimation of control problems in an attempt to understand the large variability of these problems in several branches of physics, chemistry and biology as well as in technology and economics. The main focus of the book is on a clear physical and mathematical understanding of the dynamics and kinetics behind several kinds of control problems and their relation to self-organizing principles in complex systems. The book is a modern introduction and a helpful tool for researchers, engineers as well as post-docs and graduate students interested in an application oriented control theory and related topics.
Continuous time processes for finance : Switching, self-exciting, fractional and other recent dynamics
This book explores recent topics in quantitative finance with an emphasis on applications and calibration to time-series. This last aspect is often neglected in the existing mathematical finance literature while it is crucial for risk management. The first part of this book focuses on switching regime processes that allow to model economic cycles in financial markets. After a presentation of their mathematical features and applications to stocks and interest rates, the estimation with the Hamilton filter and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo algorithm (MCMC) is detailed. A second part focuses on self-excited processes for modeling the clustering of shocks in financial markets.
Mathematical Methods in Robust Control of Linear Stochastic Systems
Linear stochastic systems are successfully used to provide mathematical models for real processes in fields such as aerospace engineering, communications, manufacturing, finance and economy. This monograph presents a useful methodology for the control of such stochastic systems with a focus on robust stabilization in the mean square, linear quadratic control, the disturbance attenuation problem, and robust stabilization with respect to dynamic and parametric uncertainty.
Mathematical Methods for Engineers and Geoscientists
This book introduces and explains classical and modern mathematical procedures as applied to the real problems confronting engineers and geoscientists. Written in a manner that is understandable for students across the breadth of their studies, it lays out the foundations for mastering difficult and sometimes confusing mathematical methods.
Mathematical Formulas for Economists
This collection of formulas constitutes a compendium of mathematics for eco nomics and business. It contains the most important formulas, statements and algorithms in this significant subfield of modern mathematics and addresses primarily students of economics or business at universities, colleges and trade schools. But people dealing with practical or applied problems will also find this collection to be an efiicient and easy-to-use work of reference. First the book treats mathematical symbols and constants, sets and state ments, number systems and their arithmetic as well as fundamentals of com binatorics. The chapter on sequences and series is followed by mathematics of finance, the representation of functions of one and several independent vari ables, their differential and integral calculus and by differential and difference equations. In each case special emphasis is placed on applications and models in economics. The chapter on linear algebra deals with matrices, vectors, determinants and systems of linear equations. This is followed by the representation of struc tures and algorithms of linear programming. Finally, the reader finds formu las on descriptive statistics (data analysis, ratios, inventory and time series analysis), on probability theory (events, probabilities, random variables and distributions) and on inductive statistics (point and interval estimates, tests). Some important tables complete the work.
Linear and Generalized Linear Mixed Models and Their Applications
This book covers two major classes of mixed effects models—linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models—and it presents an up-to-date account of theory and methods in analysis of these models as well as their applications in various fields. It offers a systematic approach to inference about non-Gaussian linear mixed models. Furthermore, it discusses the latest developments and methods in the field, incorporating relevant updates since publication of the first edition. These include advances in high-dimensional linear mixed models in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), advances in inference about generalized linear mixed models with crossed random effects, new methods in mixed model prediction, mixed model selection, and mixed model diagnostics.
Lectures on Probability Theory and Statistics : Ecole d'Eté de Probabilités de Saint-Flour XXXIII - 2003
Contains two of the three lectures that were given at the 33rd Probability Summer School in Saint-Flour (July 6-23, 2003). Amir Dembo’s course is devoted to recent studies of the fractal nature of random sets, focusing on some fine properties of the sample path of random walk and Brownian motion. In particular, the cover time for Markov chains, the dimension of discrete limsup random fractals, the multi-scale truncated second moment and the Ciesielski-Taylor identities are explored. Tadahisa Funaki’s course reviews recent developments of the mathematical theory on stochastic interface models, mostly on the so-called nabla varphi interface model. The results are formulated as classical limit theorems in probability theory, and the text serves with good applications of basic probability techniques.
Le raisonnement bayésien : Modélisation et inférence = Bayesian reasoning : Modeling and inference
Describes in detail the practice of the Bayesian statistical approach using many examples chosen for their educational interest. The first part gives the general principles of statistical modeling making it possible to supervise but also to come to the aid of the imagination of the apprentice modeler. By examining examples of increasing difficulty, the reader forges the keys to building their own model. The second part presents the most useful calculation algorithms for estimating the unknowns of the model. Each inference method is presented and illustrated by numerous application cases.
Le choix bayésien: Principes et pratique
Covers the so-called Bayesian approach to statistical inference and in particular its decision-making aspects. The bases of this axiomatics (choice of the a priori, optimal decisions, tests and regions of confidence) are discussed in detail, as well as more recent openings of Bayesian analysis such as the choice of models, the use of numerical methods. Stochastic approximation (MCMC), the theory of noninformative laws (Berger-Bernardo axioms) and the relation to the classical theory of admissibility. Each chapter is completed by an extensive series of exercises of increasing difficulty and by bibliographical notes on the themes addressed. This book can be used in a Master's program in Applied Mathematics, Biometrics, Econometrics or any other program that uses quantitative information processing techniques. It only requires a basic course in probability theory and mathematical statistics as a preliminary.
Classical Methods of Statistics : With Applications in Fusion-Oriented Plasma Physics
Classical Methods of Statistics is a blend of theory and practical statistical methods written for graduate students and researchers interested in applications to plasma physics and its experimental aspects. It can also fruitfully be used by students majoring in probability theory and statistics. In the first part, the mathematical framework and some of the history of the subject are described. Many exercises help readers to understand the underlying concepts. In the second part, two case studies are presented exemplifying discriminant analysis and multivariate profile analysis. The introductions of these case studies outline contextual magnetic plasma fusion research. In the third part, an overview of statistical software is given and, in particular, SAS and S-PLUS are discussed. In the last chapter, several datasets with guided exercises, predominantly from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak, are included and their physical background is concisely described. The book concludes with a list of essential keyword translations.
Chance : The life of games and the game of life
With its many easy-to-follow mathematical examples, this book takes the reader on an almost chronological trip through the fascinating and amazing laws of chance, omnipresent in the natural world and in our daily lives. Along the route many fascinating topics are discussed, such as: challenging probability paradoxes; "paranormal" coincidences; game odds; causes and effects; interpretation of opinion polls; winning chances as a game proceeds; the nature of randomness; entropy and randomness; randomness in life; algorithmic complexity and the undecidability of randomness; possibilities and limitations of learning the laws of a Universe immersed in chance events. This charming book will inform and entertain the scientist and non-scientist alike.
Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370
This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time series estimation methods were used to produce a probability distribution of potential MH370 flight paths. It provides details of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics, satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects and radar data were constructed and calibrated. The probability distribution was used to define the search zone in the southern Indian Ocean. The book describes particle-filter based numerical calculation of the aircraft flight-path probability distribution and validates the method using data from several of the involved aircraft’s previous flights. Finally it is shown how the Reunion Island flaperon debris find affects the search probability distribution.
Bayesian core : A practical approach to computational Bayesian statistics
This Bayesian modeling book provides an operational methodology for conducting Bayesian inference, rather than focusing on its theoretical justifications. Special attention is paid to the derivation of prior distributions in each case and specific reference solutions are given for each of the models.
Basic Probability Theory with Applications
This book presents elementary probability theory with interesting and well-chosen applications that illustrate the theory. An introductory chapter reviews the basic elements of differential calculus which are used in the material to follow. The theory is presented systematically, beginning with the main results in elementary probability theory. This is followed by material on random variables. Random vectors, including the all important central limit theorem, are treated next. The last three chapters concentrate on applications of this theory in the areas of reliability theory, basic queuing models, and time series. Examples are elegantly woven into the text and over 400 exercises reinforce the material and provide students with ample practice.
Basic principles and applications of probability theory
This introductory chapter discusses such notions as determinism, chaos and randomness, p- dictibility and unpredictibility, some initial approaches to formalizing r- domness and it surveys certain problems that can be solved by probability theory. This will perhaps give one an idea to what extent the theory can - swer questions arising in speci?c random occurrences and the character of the answers provided by the theory. 1. 1 The Nature of Randomness The phrase “by chance” has no single meaning in ordinary language. For instance, it may mean unpremeditated, nonobligatory, unexpected, and so on. Its opposite sense is simpler: “not by chance” signi?es obliged to or bound to (happen). In philosophy, necessity counteracts randomness. Necessity signi?es conforming to law – it can be expressed by an exact law. The basic laws of mechanics, physics and astronomy can be formulated in terms of precise quantitativerelationswhichmustholdwithironcladnecessity.
Aspects of Brownian motion
Stochastic calculus and excursion theory are very efficient tools to obtain either exact or asymptotic results about Brownian motion and related processes. The emphasis of this book is on special classes of such Brownian functionals as: - Gaussian subspaces of the Gaussian space of Brownian motion; - Brownian quadratic funtionals; - Brownian local times, - Exponential functionals of Brownian motion with drift; - Winding number of one or several Brownian motions around one or several points or a straight line, or curves; - Time spent by Brownian motion below a multiple of its one-sided supremum.
Applied Stochastic Processes
Applied Stochastic Processes uses a distinctly applied framework to present the most important topics in the field of stochastic processes.
