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Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting
This book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors.
New Perspectives in the Study of Mesoamerican Primates : Distribution, Ecology, Behavior, and Conservation
The purpose of this volume is to present a comprehensive overview of recent advances in primate field research, ecology, and conservation biology in Mesoamerica. The overall goal of each contribution is to integrate newly collected field data with theoretical perspectives drawn from evolutionary biology, socioecology, biological anthropology, and conservation to identify how our current knowledge of primate behavior and ecology has moved beyond more traditional approaches. A corollary to this, and an important goal of the volume is to identify geographical regions and species for which we continue to lack sufficient information, to develop action plans for future research, and to identify areas for immediate conservation action. Despite many decades of primate research in Mesoamerica, much is still unknown concerning the basic ecology and behavior of these species, demography, current distribution, and conservation status of local populations, and the effectiveness of conservation policies on primate survivorship. Four major areas of research are the focus of the volume: Evolutionary Biology and Biogeography; Population Demography and Ecology; Behavior; and Conservation and Management Policies.
New methods for measuring and analyzing segregation
This book introduces new methods for measuring and analyzing residential segregation. It begins by placing all popular segregation indices in the “difference of group means” framework wherein index scores can be obtained as simple differences of group means on individual-level residential attainments scored from area racial composition. Drawing on the insight that in this framework index scores are additively determined by individual residential attainments, the book shows that the level of segregation in a given city can be equated to the effect of group membership (e.g., race) on individual residential attainments. This unifies separate research traditions in the field by joining the analysis of segregation at the aggregate level with the analysis of residential attainments for individuals.
Multilevel Synthesis : From the Group to the Individual
This book presents a historical panorama of the evolution of demographic thought from its eighteenth-century origins up to the present day, and uses it to demonstrate how the multilevel approach can resolve some of the contradictions that have become apparent and achieve a synthesis of the different approaches employed. Part one guides the reader from period analysis to multilevel analysis, examining longitudinal and event history analysis on the way. Part two is a detailed account of multilevel analysis, its methods, and the relevant mathematical models notably as regards the type of variables being used. Numerous examples, examined across successive sections, make the book clear and easy to follow.
Modelli Dinamici Discreti = Discrete Dynamic Models
Discrete mathematical modeling is one of the driving factors in modern mathematics research, and has played a role of synthesis between different disciplines, becoming a tool for qualitative and quantitative analysis in applied sciences. This volume provides an introduction to the analysis of discrete dynamic systems, following a modeling approach. An examination of a wide range of examples, models, and motivations drawn from Biology, Demography, Engineering and Economics, is followed by the presentation of the tools for the study of linear and non-linear scalar dynamical systems, with particular attention to stability analysis. The linear difference equations are studied in detail and an elementary introduction to the Z and DFT transforms is provided. One chapter is devoted to the study of bifurcations and chaotic dynamics. One-step vector dynamical systems and the applications of Markov chains are the subject of three chapters.
Model-Based Demography: Essays on Integrating Data, Technique and Theory
This book shows how demography can build a strong theoretical edifice on its broad and deep empirical foundation by adoption of the model-based approach to science. But the full-fruits of this approach will require demographers to make greater use of computer modeling [both macro- and micro-simulation], in the statement and manipulation of theoretical ideas, as well as for numerical computation.
Microsimulation Population Projections with SAS : A Reference Guide
This book for a researcher needs to perform microsimulation for population projections, building its own model with a common statistical software such as SAS might a good option, because this software is widely used among scholars and is taught in most social sciences departments. We define what is microsimulation: a modelling based on individual-level data rather than aggregated level data, in which transitions between the states are determined stochastically with a random experiment. We finally provide some examples of microsimulation models used by social scientists.
Methodological Investigations in Agent-Based Modelling : With Applications for the Social Sciences
Examines the methodological complications of using complexity science concepts within the social science domain. The opening chapters take the reader on a tour through the development of simulation methodologies in the fields of artificial life and population biology, then demonstrates the growing popularity and relevance of these methods in the social sciences. Following an in-depth analysis of the potential impact of these methods on social science and social theory, the text provides substantive examples of the application of agent-based models in the field of demography. This work offers a unique combination of applied simulation work and substantive, in-depth philosophical analysis, and as such has potential appeal for specialist social scientists, complex systems scientists, and philosophers of science interested in the methodology of simulation and the practice of interdisciplinary computing research.
Inevitable Aging? : Contributions to Evolutionary-Demographic Theory
Aging is inevitable: this is gerontological dogma. And humans do inevitably grow old, which is probably why it seems so unlikely to us that other forms of life could escape aging. Escaping aging is not escaping death. Death is an inherent part of life, and it can strike any time. But the question is whether death necessarily becomes more likely as life proceeds. And it does not. The theoretical results in this monograph indicate that life provides alternative strategies. While some organisms will deteriorate over adult ages, for others mortality appears to fall or remain constant, at least over an extended period of life after reproductive maturity. This is empirically observed especially for species that keep on growing during adult ages. Perhaps the diversity of aging matches the diversity of life. My thesis, the central insight of this monograph, is: to deeply understand why some species age it is necessary to understand why other species do not.
Human Longevity, Individual Life Duration, and the Growth of the Oldest-Old Population
Old-age survival has considerably improved in the second half of the twentieth century. In this book, these fundamental questions are explored by experts from such diverse fields as biology, medicine, epidemiology, demography, sociology, and mathematics: they report on recent cutting-edge studies about essential issues of human longevity such as evolution of lifespan of species, genetics of human longevity, reasons for the recent improvement in survival of the elderly, medical and behavioral causes of deaths among very old people, and social factors of long survival in old age.
How Long Do We Live? : Demographic Models and Reflections on Tempo Effects
The book reviews the debate on how best to measure period longevity. In the various chapters, leading experts in demography critically examine the existence of the tempo effect in mortality, present extensions and applications, and compare period and cohort longevity measures. The book provides a deeper understanding of and new insights into the fundamental question "How long do we live"?
Housing Estates in the Baltic Countries : The Legacy of Central Planning in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
This book focuses on the formation and later socio-spatial trajectories of large housing estates in the Baltic countries—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It also explores claims that a distinctly “westward-looking orientation” in their design produced housing estates that were superior in design to those produced elsewhere in the Soviet Union. The first two parts of the book provide contextual material to help readers understand the vision behind housing estates in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These sections present the background of housing estates in the Baltic Republics as well as challenges and debates concerning their formation, evolution, and present condition and importance.
Healthy Longevity in China : Demographic, Socioeconomic, and Psychological Dimensions
China is aging at an extraordinary speed and has the largest quantity of elderly persons in the world. Scholars utilize this unprecedented living experience of human being and the unique Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) datasets with the aim to answer in this volume the following questions critical to the aging population world wide. Is the period of disability compressing or expanding with increasing life expectancy and what factors are associated with these trends in the recent decades? Is it possible to realize morbidity compression with a prolongation of the life span in the future?The first section of the book presents the CLHLS project’s study design, sample distribution, contents of data collected, and assessments of age reporting and data quality. The remaining chapters are grouped into sections dealing with the demographic, social, economic, familial and psychological dimensions of healthy longevity.
Handbook of Population
The Handbook of Population is organized for classroom as well as reference use. It is divided into four sections – Population Structure, Population Processes, Population and the Social Sciences, and Applied Demography – and includes both an Introduction and an Epilogue by the editors. Part I, Population Structure, contains chapters on population size and growth, age and sex composition, marriage and family structure, and demographic analyses of gender, aging, race and ethnicity, and the labor force. Part II is focused on population processes, and includes chapters on fertility, infant and adult mortality, internal and international migration, and the demography of social stratification. Part III reflects the growing multidisciplinary nature of demography. Finally, Part IV recognizes the varied practical applications of demographic perspectives and data to national and global issues and problems.
Global Political Demography : The Politics of Population Change
This book draws the big picture of how population change interplays with politics across the world from 1990 to 2040.
Genders in the Life Course : Demographic Issues
Treats the topic of gender and demographic behaviour during the life course in a comprehensive fashion. It covers a lot of ground, from the age at first intercourse over union formation and dissolution, fertility, migration, ageing, to excess male mortality, comparing genders behaviour and its determinants. It reports new findings of empirical research, mostly based on data from a number of European countries, making a good use of the Family and Fertility surveys and other international data base.
Finding the limits of the limes : Modelling demography, economy and transport on the edge of the Roman Empire
This book demonstrates the application of simulation modelling and network analysis techniques. The book shows the added value of state-of-the-art computer modelling techniques and bridges computational and conventional approaches. Topics that will be of particular interest to archaeologists are the question of (forced) surplus production, the demographic and economic effects of the Roman occupation on the local population, and the structuring of transport networks and settlement patterns. For modellers, issues of sensitivity analysis and validation of modelling results are specifically addressed. This book will appeal to students and researchers working in the computational humanities and social sciences, in particular, archaeology and ancient history.
Female Employment and Gender Gaps in China
This book investigates female employment and the gender gap in the labor market and households during China’s economic transition period. It provides the reader with academic evidence for understanding the mechanism of female labor force participation, the determinants of the gender gap in the labor market, and the impact of policy transformation on women’s wages and employment in China from an economics perspective
Failure rate modelling for reliability and risk
Failure Rate Modelling for Reliability and Risk focuses on reliability theory and, specifically, on the failure rate (the hazard rate, the force of mortality) modelling and its generalizations, on systems operating in a random environment and on repairable systems. The failure rate is one of the crucial probabilistic characteristics for a number of disciplines; including reliability, survival analysis, risk analysis and demography.
Exceptional Lifespans
How long can humans live? This open access book documents, verifies and brings to life the advance of the frontier of human survival. It carefully validates data on supercentenarians, aged 110+, and semi-supercentenarians, aged 105-109, stored in the International Database on Longevity (IDL).
