Publication year: 2016
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This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models.
Subject: Earth and Environmental Science, Civil Engineering, Climate Change Management and Policy, Math. Appl. in Environmental Science, Uncertainties In Climate Models, Scenario Uncertainty, Model Perfomance, Confidence Of Climate Predictions, Coupled Climate System Model, General Circulation Models, Weather Models, Model Evaluation And Validation, Greenhouse Gases, Energy Flows, Climate Forcing, Keeling Curve, Finite Element Model, Anthropogenic Climate Change, Tropical Cyclones, Ozone Assessment, Sea-Ice Models, Human System Models, Type Of Climate Models, Prediction Of Extreme Events