الصفحة 1
الصفحة 1
Demystifying Climate Models : A Users Guide to Earth System Models
This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models.
Ambiguities in Decision-oriented Life Cycle Inventories: The Role of Mental Models and Values
Shows for the first time how mental models and values influence this attribution in the life cycle inventory step of LCA. One of the key findings is that the different management rules for a sustainable use of materials must be taken into account for the attribution of material and energy flows to a product. Otherwise, improvement options recommended by an LCA might turn out to even worsen the environmental situation if reassessed from a meta-perspective. As a consequence of this book, the claim of unambiguitiy (‘objectivity’) of the life cycle inventory must be abandoned. A group-model building process for LCA is developed that allows one to grasp the decision makers' mental models and values in the inventory analysis on a case- and situation-specific basis. Only by this, LCA results will become relevant in a decision-making process. Two case studies on the modelling of recycling and other end-of-life options of aluminium windows and beech wood railway sleepers in LCA complement the methodological part.
