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Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370
This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time series estimation methods were used to produce a probability distribution of potential MH370 flight paths. It provides details of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics, satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects and radar data were constructed and calibrated. The probability distribution was used to define the search zone in the southern Indian Ocean. The book describes particle-filter based numerical calculation of the aircraft flight-path probability distribution and validates the method using data from several of the involved aircraft’s previous flights. Finally it is shown how the Reunion Island flaperon debris find affects the search probability distribution.
Adaptive Learning of Polynomial Networks : Genetic Programming, Backpropagation and Bayesian Methods
This book provides theoretical and practical knowledge for develop ment of algorithms that infer linear and nonlinear models. It offers a methodology for inductive learning of polynomial neural network mod els from data. The design of such tools contributes to better statistical data modelling when addressing tasks from various areas like system identification, chaotic time-series prediction, financial forecasting and data mining. The main claim is that the model identification process involves several equally important steps: finding the model structure, estimating the model weight parameters, and tuning these weights with respect to the adopted assumptions about the underlying data distrib ution. When the learning process is organized according to these steps, performed together one after the other or separately, one may expect to discover models that generalize well.
Applied Civil Engineering Risk Analysis
Povides readers with the tools needed to determine the probability of failure, and when multiplied by the consequences of failure, illustrates how to assess the risk of civil engineering problems. Presenting methods for quantifying uncertainty that exists in engineering analysis and design, with an emphasis on fostering more accurate analysis and design.
Bayesian reliability
Bayesian Reliability presents modern methods and techniques for analyzing reliability data from a Bayesian perspective. The adoption and application of Bayesian methods in virtually all branches of science and engineering have significantly increased over the past few decades. This increase is largely due to advances in simulation-based computational tools for implementing Bayesian methods. The authors extensively use such tools throughout this book, focusing on assessing the reliability of components and systems with particular attention to hierarchical models and models incorporating explanatory variables. Such models include failure time regression models, accelerated testing models, and degradation models. The authors pay special attention to Bayesian goodness-of-fit testing, model validation, reliability test design, and assurance test planning. Throughout the book, the authors use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for implementing Bayesian analyses--algorithms that make the Bayesian approach to reliability computationally feasible and conceptually straightforward.
