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Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370
This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time series estimation methods were used to produce a probability distribution of potential MH370 flight paths. It provides details of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics, satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects and radar data were constructed and calibrated. The probability distribution was used to define the search zone in the southern Indian Ocean. The book describes particle-filter based numerical calculation of the aircraft flight-path probability distribution and validates the method using data from several of the involved aircraft’s previous flights. Finally it is shown how the Reunion Island flaperon debris find affects the search probability distribution.
Analytical and Stochastic Modeling Techniques and Applications ; 15th International Conference, ASMTA 2008 Nicosia, Cyprus, June 4-6, 2008 Proceedings
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Analytical and Stochastic Modeling Techniques and Applications, ASMTA 2008, held in Nicosia, Cyprus, in June 2008.
Aging, shaking, and cracking of infrastructures : From mechanics to concrete dams and nuclear structures
Focuses on the safety assessment of existing structures subjected to multi-hazard scenarios through advanced numerical methods. Whereas the focus is on concrete dams and nuclear containment structures, the presented methodologies can also be applied to other large-scale ones. This book is composed of seven sections: Fundamentals: theoretical coverage of solid mechnics, plasticity, fracture mechanics, creep, / seismology, dynamic analysis, probability and statistics / Damage: that can affect concrete structures, such as cracking of concrete, AAR, chloride ingress, and rebar corrosion, / Finite Element: formulation for both linear and nonlinear analysis including stress, heat and fracture mechanics, / Engineering Models: for soil/fluid-structure interaction, uncertainty quantification, probablilistic and random finite element analysis, machine learning, performance based earthquake engineering, ground motion intensity measures, seismic hazard analysis, capacity/fragility functions and damage indeces, / Applications to dams through potential failure mode analyses, risk-informed decision making, deterministic and probabilistic examples, / Applications to nuclear structures through modeling issues, aging management programs, critical review of some analyses, / Other applications and case studies: massive RC structures and bridges, detailed assessment of a nuclear containment structure evaluation for license renewal.
Maîtriser laléatoire : Exercices résolus de probabilités et statistique = Mastering Randomness : Solved Exercises in Probability and Statistics
Consists of 245 solved exercises that cover all the basic concepts of probability and statistics. The work is structured in nine chapters, each containing a brief introduction, bibliographic references to more specialized works, as well as a series of exercises and their detailed solutions. Ranked in increasing order of difficulty, these will allow the reader to appreciate the extent of his progress. This book can be used as a supplement to any theory manual on statistics and probability. Due to the great diversity of the examples offered, it will suit a diverse readership: students of economics, psychology, social sciences, mathematics, physics, chemistry, medicine or biology.
Chance : The life of games and the game of life
With its many easy-to-follow mathematical examples, this book takes the reader on an almost chronological trip through the fascinating and amazing laws of chance, omnipresent in the natural world and in our daily lives. Along the route many fascinating topics are discussed, such as: challenging probability paradoxes; "paranormal" coincidences; game odds; causes and effects; interpretation of opinion polls; winning chances as a game proceeds; the nature of randomness; entropy and randomness; randomness in life; algorithmic complexity and the undecidability of randomness; possibilities and limitations of learning the laws of a Universe immersed in chance events. This charming book will inform and entertain the scientist and non-scientist alike.
Bayesian core : A practical approach to computational Bayesian statistics
This Bayesian modeling book provides an operational methodology for conducting Bayesian inference, rather than focusing on its theoretical justifications. Special attention is paid to the derivation of prior distributions in each case and specific reference solutions are given for each of the models.
Applied Probability and Statistics
This text is designed for a one-semester course on Probability and Statistics. The exposition unfolds systematically from an introductory chapter to such topics as random variables and vectors, stochastic processes, estimation, testing and regression. The topics are well chosen and the presentation is enriched by many examples from real life. Following every chapter, the reader will find many original, solved and unsolved problems and hundreds of multiple choice questions, enabling those unfamiliar with the topics to master them. Additionally appealing are the interesting historical notes on the mathematicians mentioned throughout and a useful bibliography. A distinguishing character of the book is the thorough and succinct handling of the various topics.
An Introduction to the Mathematics of Money : Saving and Investing
This is an undergraduate textbook on the basic aspects of personal savings and investing with a balanced mix of mathematical rigor and economic intuition. It uses routine financial calculations as the motivation and basis for tools of elementary real analysis rather than taking the latter as given. Proofs using induction, recurrence relations and proofs by contradiction are covered. Inequalities such as the Arithmetic-Geometric Mean Inequality and the Cauchy-Schwarz Inequality are used. Basic topics in probability and statistics are presented.
A Modern Introduction to Probability and Statistics : Understanding Why and How
A Modern Introduction to Probability and Statistics has numerous quick exercises to give direct feedback to the students. In addition the book contains over 350 exercises, half of which have answers, of which half have full solutions. A website at www.springeronline.com/1-85233-896-2 gives access to the data files used in the text, and, for instructors, the remaining solutions. The only pre-requisite for the book is a first course in calculus; the text covers standard statistics and probability material, and develops beyond traditional parametric models to the Poisson process, and on to useful modern methods such as the bootstrap.
A History of Parametric Statistical Inference from Bernoulli to Fischer, 1713-1935
This is a history of parametric statistical inference, written by one of the most important historians of statistics of the 20th century, Anders Hald. This book can be viewed as a follow-up to his two most recent books, although this current text is much more streamlined and contains new analysis of many ideas and developments. And unlike his other books, which were encyclopedic by nature, this book can be used for a course on the topic, the only prerequisites being a basic course in probability and statistics.
