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978-3-540-37449-7

Sovereign Default Risk Valuation

Publish Date: 2006

ISBN: 978-3-540-37449-7

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Past cycles of sovereign lending and default in emerging markets suggest that debt crises will recur at some point. In addressing debt crises it has proven helpful to distinguish between situations of illiquidity and insolvency. Solutions range from a voluntary debt swap to a soft or hard restructuring. This book shows why investors should reckon with similar credit events in the future. Insights gained from recent restructurings inspire the design of a valuation model for sovereign bonds. Using the distinction between hard and soft restructurings, the model draws parallels to the concepts of face value and market value recovery. An extension into credit default swap markets explains why bond and CDS spreads diverge during distress.


Subject: Business and Economics, Bond Investment, Credit Default Swaps, Credit Risk, Emerging Market, Investment, Sovereign Restructuring, linear optimization